As of the last few days of January, we saw a steep shift in selling pressure on Octaura, coupled with heavy new issuance. Loan prices as of January 30th were down 39 cents – price action not seen since April volatility of last year. Tech led the way, falling $1.02 DoD on the 29th, pushing credits across the board down leaving only 49% bid above par, a low not seen since April ’25.
Backing up a bit, we saw geopolitical tensions amp up with the ‘Greenland talk’, as well as Trump’s Davos commentary earlier this month, which we predicted could lead to a scenario similar to last year’s ‘Tariff talk’, whereby wider credit spreads could be on the horizon. Over the course of the month though, the president softened the conversation around acquiring Greenland.
Looking back even earlier– January kicked off with a clear theme: Investors struggling to hold on to paper. As a result of year-end scheduled amortization, and larger M&A deals that benefit from a tighter spread environment, there was a lot of refi activity. We saw one of the largest healthcare leveraged buyouts in recent years, valued at over $18B1, with the take-private acquisition of Hologic by Blackstone and TPG. BSL issuance should continue to benefit from an uptick on M&A.
January has gone out very differently than it started, with loans logging their first negative monthly return since April 2025. Jan was a tale of two halves, which may provide insights into potential volatility for the balance of the year. On Octaura, the balance of the month landed at 67% of all trades trading above par in January, but last week, just 44% of trades landed above par.
We saw balanced sector reduction across the board based on what is trading on Octaura. The overall market seemed to be reset almost half a point lower over a handful of days last week. Large liquidations have flooded the market across multiple sectors in a rally down. People are revisting their portfolios – in a risk reduction phase.
Access to liquidity and real-time insight into what’s actually driving prices—flows, liquidity, and participant behavior—not just delayed prints, is crucial. In opaque markets, that live context is what helps clients make more thoughtful risk decisions.
With a lot of factors at play in January, we are seeing a very active new issue calendar, lots of supply in the market dominated by called CLOs, and as of the last few days – lots of heavy losses driven by the tech sector. Octaura’s volume has grown extensively – as of January 12th, platform volumes were up 820% YOY in the same period versus 2025, with tons of market activity in the first few weeks of the year.
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